A Happy Team At Hawthorn - AFL Round 18 Tipping Preview

Big week of AFL this week kicking off on Friday night with a big clash between Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Let’s take a look at the DieHard Footy picks for Round 18:

($2.85) Collingwood v Hawthorn ($1.40)
SB’s Tip: Hawthorn
SB’s Line: Take the -15.5 Hawthorn

Hawthorn and Collingwood meet in a big Friday night clash at the MCG that is crucial for both teams.Hawthorn have had three recent losses and are coming off a hard fought 11 point loss to Geelong last Friday night. Collingwood have been in ordinary form of late losing four of their last six and were shocking in their 48 point loss to Essendon last Saturday. These two sides have already met this year where Hawthorn won easily by 65 points and they have won the last two against the Pies.

Hawthorn have made a couple of changes with most noticeably Shane Crawford returning after some knee problems. Collingwood have reacted to their poor recent form by resting Shane Wakelin and dropping Ben Johnson and Cameron Wood who makes way for Josh Fraser amongst others.

How Collingwood perform containing Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead will go along way to determining the winner of this game. Last time these two sides played Buddy and Ruffy both had a day out. If the Pies are to be any hope they can’t allow this to happen again and with Wakelin being rested (a strange decision) it is hard to see at least one of them not getting on top of their opponent. The Hawks should win this one comfortably.

($1.22) Essendon v Melbourne ($4.00)
SB’s Tip: Essendon
SB’s Line: Take the +26.5 Melbourne

Essendon will look to hold on to any slim finals chance that they have when they take on Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday. The Bombers are in a rich vein of form coming off a 48 point smashing of Collingwood last week and had it not been for some inaccurate kicking against Richmond two weeks ago they would be on a six game winning streak. Melbourne have had a dismissal season sitting on the bottom of the ladder with only two wins. There recent form has not been as bad as it looks and they are becoming alot more competitve.

Essendon have made one change with Scott Lucas out with a back injury and he is replaced by Andrew Lovett who has served his two game club suspension. Melbourne have regained the services of Brad Green, Paul Wheatley and Aussie Wonaeamirri who come in for Brad Miller, Nathan Jones and Michael ‘Jack’ Newton.

With Lucas missing and Melbourne having some good inclusions I think this game will be alot closer than the odds suggest. The last time these two sides met it took some last quarter heroics from Scott Lucas for the Bombers to get over the line by 3 points. Whilst I still think Essendon will win I think it will be a tight contest and can only see a two or three goal margin.

($1.68) Adelaide v Carlton ($2.10)
JP’s Tip: Carlton
JP’s Line: Take the +8.5 Carlton

Has any team amazed more this year than Carlton? But in a weird way. Seriously. There was plenty of fanfare coming into the season because of Judd, but people weren’t exactly sure what it would mean for 2008 - maybe a finals push? And looking at how things have played out, that is about right really. It is how they have done it that has amazed - two big upsets against the Pies, the fourth quarter comebacks, losses to teams they should beat… and then last week. At half time last weekend they were dead men walking. Then, as they have done all year, Carlton managed the unpredictable and kept the finals dream alive. And to be honest, if not for their comeback, the Crows victory against Sydney probably would have been the story of round 17.

There are no real changes from last weeks squads, Massie comes in for Tippett, and for the Blues Armfield is in for Hartlett. The Crows are still without Johncock whose exclusion continues to mystify most. With the extra season up for grabs both teams should be ready for a massive contest - the game should find its answers through Porplyzia, Fevola and the job Gibbs can do on Scott Thompson. Adelaide won their last meeting by 30 points, but this game is completely different circumstances, and I for one am not one to bet against Judd in a big game.

($2.18) Kangaroos v Brisbane ($1.73)
TH’s Tip: Kangaroos
TH’s Line: Take the +6.5 Kangaroos

I ask - why are the Lions favourites for this one? They are hardly in great form - 3 losses to teams out of the 8 with a win over the struggling Eagles in the middle. The Kangaroos on the other hand are travelling pretty well - 3 wins in succession.

Granted, the Lions won by 5 goals earlier in the season, with Brown and Bradshaw both kicking 6. But that was at the Gabba, and this time they’ll be at Carrara - where the Kangaroos took the W against the Lions last year.

In a pretty evenly matched contest, I think the Kangaroos look over the odds and worthy of a ticket at the black figures.