Beware Footballers Who Can Read – Heffernan’s Spray

We’re only two rounds in to another AFL season, and already we’ve seen a number of upsets and inexplicable performances. Try explaining these four particular results:

• Richmond getting absolutely totally pantsed by the Blues in Round 1
• Collingwood losing in Round 1 to the Crows
• Adelaide losing at home in Round 2 to the Saints
• Port Adelaide copping a 50 point hiding at the hands of the Eagles

So how many explanations have you come up with? You’d have had a tough time trying to predict those four results, and been paid handsomely had you put your money where your mouth is. But is it as simple as saying they were just the better side on the day? No way.

A lot of these upset results can come down to one of my favourite rules of AFL tipping:

Beware the side who have spent all week reading in the papers how good they are..

Every year, football becomes played less on the ground and more between the ears. I’m sure you’ve all heard the terms ‘they didn’t come to play’, ‘they took them too easy’, even ‘all they thought they had to do is show up’.

Football sides are full of humans, complete with thoughts, emotions, and egos. Imagine the effect a week of positive press can have on the ego of a footballer, who has already become accustomed to hearing how good they are on their way to the big league.

Take a look at the Pies. Big preseason, backed into third favourites, tipped for a huge year from everyone, coming up against a Crows team with no press and seemingly (if you had listened to the press) no prospects. No wonder the intensity isn’t quite there – all they have to do is ‘turn up’.

How about those Crows? They cause the big upset and all of a sudden everyone is awake to them. Their youngsters garner rave reviews, their senior players are heralded all over again. Life is good. So explain how they then lose at home to the Saints? Maybe they read one too many copies of how good they are in the Adelaide Now.

They weren’t the only ones. Try Port Adelaide. Tipped by some to finish as high as top 4 (!), opposition players all talking about how they will be much improved this year, a runaway victory against the Bombers in Round 1. The press harping on their great record against the Eagles. Just a matter of showing up. Wrong again.

Reading the newspapers. Believing their own press. Call it what you like. I might be overestimating it, but if you have a better explanation for these upsets, then I’d like to hear it.

Oh – one last thing – if you’re taking the very short odds about the Blues this week, it might just pay to have a flick through the sports pages…