Can The Bombers Stay In The 8?

The next team on the agenda is one of the surprise packets of Season 2009, Essendon. The Bombers are currently sitting in 8th spot, a position that not too many people would have seen them in at this stage of the season.

Remaining Games:

Round 17 – Richmond (14th) @ MCG

Round 18 – West Coast (13th) @ Subiaco

Round 19 – Brisbane (5th) @ MCG

Round 20 – St Kilda (1st) @ Etihad Stadium

Round 21 – Fremantle (16th) @ Subiaco

Round 22 – Hawthorn (10th) @ MCG

Essendon have been one of the big improvers in Season 2009. They have gone from a potential bottom four side to a team that has taken some big scalps and is now competing for a spot in the Finals. Their high risk, fast pace game means they can be a danger for any side that they come up against but it can also mean they need to be spot on to be competitive against the better teams.

Like Port Adelaide, Essendon have a pretty even run home, facing only two teams that are currently sitting in the Top 8 in Brisbane (Round 19) and St Kilda (Round 20). They have two trips to Western Australia against West Coast (Round 18) and Fremantle (Round 21). Both teams are beginning to wind down their seasons so this gives them an opportunity to pick up a couple of wins in what are usually tough road trips. West Coast has generally had the better of Essendon at Subiaco in recent years whilst the Bombers got over Fremantle there last season and will have a lot more to play for at that stage of the season. This weeks game against Richmond (Round 17) looms as a must win, whilst the matchup against Hawthorn (Round 22) potentially looms as a playoff for a Finals spot.

Will the young Bombers tire and fade away towards the end of the season? That is the question that a lot of people have been asking in recent times. They have done a mighty job so far this season suffering their fair share of injuries throughout the journey but they continue to put in week after week. Paddy Ryder standing up in the ruck is an obvious key for them as he has been one of their best players all year. Jobe Watson has been the clearance king and is so important for the Dons feeding the ball out to the likes of Stanton, Lovett and Winderlich. Consistency has also been issue with the Bombers struggling to string wins together and in the majority of their losses it has just been a quarter of play that has been the difference.

Essendon’s percentage (101.34%) gives them a major advantage over Hawthorn and Port Adelaide as it will give them the advantage in the event that any of those teams finish on the same amount of wins. Barring the Bombers copping a hiding at the hands of say St Kilda (Round 20) it looks safe to say that they should hold this percentage advantage by the end of Round 22.

I have Essendon finishing 12 wins and 10 losses in 8th position. I have them winning their next three games against Richmond this week and a weakened West Coast coming off the Derby the week after. The following week they take on Brisbane at the MCG, a team that they have had a good deal of success against in Melbourne in the past three years. I can’t see them beating the Saints in Round 20, whilst they should be good enough and desperate enough to beat Fremantle at Subiaco in Round 21. The two games at Subiaco are keys as a loss in either of them may result in the Bombers needing a win against Hawthorn in Round 22 to make the Finals, something I’m not too sure they are capable of at the MCG, particularly if the Hawks are in the running for one of the final spots in the Top 8.

Do you think Essendon will make the finals? Would you rate them a chance in a final against a Carlton or Collingwood in the first week? Leave us with your thoughts.