DHF Dream Team Captains – Round 4

That time of week again, and the stakes are up with this week marking Round 1 of the head to head match-ups in your DT League competitions where your captain selection could mean the difference between 4 points or 0 on the ladder.

Last weeks tips again saw DHF’s score predictions to be in blazing form, finding some of the best performers of the weekend and having just one of the top four fail to crack the ton (by just 3 points).

Dane Swan (115.2 projected, 112 scored)
Peter Burgoyne (113.1 projected, 121 scored)
Steve Johnson (108.6 projected, 97 scored)
Gary Ablett (106.5 projected, 134 scored)

DHF’s captain average is now at 120 (based on the highest predicted scorer each week);
My personal captain average is at 127 (based on captain selected in my DT);

Note - DTT raised a point in Calvin’s Captains this week that some sites were using the entire league to produce the average of their selected captain for the week. We had been doing this to show the success of the score predictor, but I have added my personal average (I select the highest predicted score that is playing in my team).

With that sorted let’s hit the games:

Brisbane vs Collingwood (GABBA)

Brisbane		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Luke Power	92.0	102.0	90.8	94.3	94.8

Collingwood
	Dane Swan	117.0	102.0	93.0	119.0	107.8
	Josh Fraser	110.3	69.0	78.0	115.0	93.1
	Tarkyn Lockyer	92.8	90.0	100.0	102.6	96.3

*
An important game for two teams trying to assert the fact they will be top 8 again this season, and one that some might think a good test for Brisbane. Once again Dane Swan is your main option as captain from the Pie’s unit, but consider he doesn’t like playing on the GABBA too much, averaging just 93 over the last two trips up there. Tark and Fraser have been putting in strong performances but I am not seeing much reason to pluck them out as a captain this week, and for Brisbane the best bet is Luke Power who has been solid against the Pies recently.

DHF Tip: Dane Swan

Sydney vs Carlton (SCG)

Sydney		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Darren Jolly	102.5	99.0	72.3	115.3	97.3

Carlton
	Marc Murphy	109.5	85.0	77.0	108.6	95.0
	Bryce Gibbs	117.8	63.0	21.0	112.0	78.4
	Chris Judd	113.3	79.0	92.0	109.3	98.4

*
As per usual when it comes to the Sydney games, not a lot on offer.  Even with the Blues Fab-4 (or is it 3) the score predictor cannot find a viable option, the Swans have just been too good at holding DT’ers scores down, particularly down at the SCG.  Goodes is stepping up to the role of tagging Judd, which could make it tough for both Judd and Goodes to score big.

DHF Tip: Juddy if you absolutely have to.

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide (MCG)

Hawthorn		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Sam Mitchell	82.3	100.0	96.8	88.0	91.8

Port Adelaide
	Chad Cornes	89.5	112.0	120.8	102.6	106.2
	Kane Cornes	97.3	130.0	112.8	100.6	110.2
	Steven Salopek	91.8	69.3	57.0	98.0	79.0

*
The Hawks continue to struggle in finding us a solid captain option, with Sammy and Hodge still in and out of form, while Buddy has struggled during his career against Port not even cracking the ton in the past.  Port on the other hand have enough DT studs that one of our captain picks from last week (Burgoyne) can get suspended and they still have captain options aplenty.  The Cornes boys as usual are the pick, both had posted big numbers against the Hawks in the past, just remember that this game might be tougher than usual and in those occassions Port’s numbers can dimish.

DHF Tip: Kane Cornes

Adelaide vs Geelong (AAMI)

Adelaide		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Tyson Edwards	94.0	109.0	84.0	101.6	97.2
	Scott Thompson	76.5	107.0	87.5	86.0	89.3

Geelong
	Gary Ablett	113.3	84.0	89.8	112.7	99.9
	Jimmy Bartel	105.0	141.0	112.0	116.5	118.6
	Joel Corey	101.3	125.0	118.3	97.3	110.5

*
It is a rare week this week with Gary Ablett not even predicted to crack the 100 mark. He has been well held recently by the Crows, and hasn’t done well at AAMI either. Where one option is closed down, several more are opened for the Cats though, with Jimmy Bartel proving to be an absolute beast against Adelaide, averaging 141 in his last few contests.  Corey runs riot as well, posting 125 against Adelaide and 118 at AAMI.

DHF Tip: Jimmy Bartel

St Kilda vs Fremantle (ETIHAD)

St Kilda		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Nick Dal Santo	102.8	87.0	109.3	118.6	104.4
	Brendon Goddard	110.8	98.0	121.3	99.0	107.3
	Sam Fisher	96.0	95.0	86.5	88.3	91.5
	Leigh Montagna	109.8	87.0	112.5	120.0	107.3

Fremantle
	- just plain yuk

*
The Saints are rolling along right now, and they are being spear-headed by the likes of Montagna and Goddard who have been everywhere for the first three weeks.  Neither have been exceptional in the past against Freo, but there should be plenty of DT points available in what should be another huge blowout for the Saints in their beloved confines of Etihad Stadium.

DHF Tip: Not even the score predictor can split Montagna and Goddard

Kangaroos vs Essendon (ETIHAD)

Kangaroos		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	- squat

Essendon
	- squat

*
Nothing to see here.

Richmond vs Melbourne (MCG)

Richmond		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Matthew Richardson	98.5	107.0	102.3	114.6	105.6
	Brett Deledio	105.0	115.0	111.3	93.3	106.1
	Nathan Brown	95.8	79.0	96.5	101.0	93.1
Melbourne
	Cameron Bruce	103.0	101.0	108.0	105.6	104.4

*
These two teams have combined for 0 wins and 6 losses so far, but atleast they can provide a few solid DT Captain options between them. The Tigers are under the pump to get their first win, and like most teams their big pins in Deledio and Richardson enjoy playing the Dee’s. Meanwhile Cam Bruce has been his usual self, messing about well over the 100 mark the last two games.

DHF Tip: Brett Deledio

West Coast vs Western Bulldogs (Subiaco)

West Coast		Last 4	Recent Ave against opp	Recent Ave at Ground	Season Ave	Predicted Score
	Dean Cox	100.5	84.0	98.3	99.5	95.6
	Matthew Priddis	97.3	86.0	99.3	101.6	96.0

Western Bulldogs
	Daniel Cross	110.5	104.0	100.0	105.7	105.1

*
In the Bulldogs second trip out West this year they are offerring one major captain player in Daniel Cross who has been solid this season, solid against West Coast in the past and solid on Subiaco.

DHF Tip: Daniel Cross

DHF Top 4 Captains for Round 4 (brought to you from by the new revolutionary Scoring Predictor):

Jimmy Bartel 118.6
Joel Corey 110.5
Kane Cornes 110.2
Leigh Montagna 107.3

DHF Captain Round 4 – Jimmy Bartel…lock and load!
My personal Captain Round 4 – Jimmy Bartel

Who are you going with this week?