The Die Hard Footy Dream Team Manifesto!

I will be honest, as I was browsing around the Internet the other day, looking for anything in AFL to waste my last hour of work time on, this post by Dream Team Talk sent me from six to midnight.

AFL Dream Team 2009 Now Open!

That is right, AFL Dream Team is back for 2009 and I have been reviewing player prices, tinkering with my team and arguing with people I don’t know on message boards ever since.

Now with Dream Team having had a few solid years to establish itself as the better alternative to tipping and becoming so popular that you treat a football fan that doesn’t play like they just grabbed your girl friends ass in front of you, Die Hard Footy thought it was about time to unleash the DHF Dream Team Manifesto.

Basically the Manifesto will provide you with the guidelines to playing Dream Team like the Pros. It is to be used as the spine to build your team around - it won’t tell you who to pick in 2009 (help on that will be coming…trust me), but it will tell you how to play if you want to be pantsing your buddies right through until September glory.

A few other quick points before we get started:

- We aren’t really covering new ground here, the best players have been using these tactics for years. If you look around you could even find them documented elsewhere. DHF is just compiling the full kit and kaboodle and blowing the lid off the secrets of the pros;

- You may wonder why let these strategies out? The answer was put best by Nick Nolte in Blue Chips “It isn’t what you do; it’s how you do it GOD DAMN IT!” But knowing what to do to start with is a good starter.

Ok let’s get started. We are going to break things down to a couple of key sections of the Dream Team season:

Initial Team Selection:

The initial team selection is the most important part of Dream Team. You can make or break your season right here and this is why: you only get 20 trades for a 22 week season. Read that sentence again.

Then re-read it.

1. Have an idea of what you want your Dream Team to look like at the end of the season and draft around 14 keepers (players you intend to keep for the year) – the more keepers you can get the better (no less than 12).

This is important because you have to realise you aren’t just picking your team for the first few weeks of the season. You do not even have enough trades to trade all your players once. Therefore by having a minimum of 12 keepers from the start you will still have enough trades to upgrade players via your cash cows and account for injuries as the season goes along.

2. Out of your 12 keepers you want to make sure you have 3-4 players that would make good captain selections week in and week out.

As I hope you already know, your Captain brings the hammer of double points, and picking the right captain each week can make a difference in the win-loss column, believe me. Here you want players that you can count on to top the mystical 100-mark each week, but also give you various options to select the player with the best scenario to score big depending on opponent/field/injury etc.

3. If you have multiple position options when picking a player - for christ’s sake - DON’T PICK THEM IN THE MIDFIELD!!!

There are far more high scoring options in the midfield than any other position, so look to fill up your forwards and backs with high scorers where possible (even if it is going to be costly). If you have to be George Costanza-level tight with money anywhere the midfield is the place to do it – just make sure you pick right.

4. Select CASH COWS

After you have your keepers selected, your remaining players should be brought in to make you money. Here we have two types; basement priced rookies, and mid-rangers that you hope to improve.

Let’s explain what a ‘cash cow’ is. A cash cow is a rookie who is picked because they are going to play early in the season and their value will rise. Once they hit their peak value, you then trade them to another low-priced player, freeing up a ton of cash for you to then use to upgrade another of your players.

For a very quick and rough example, you pick up everyone’s favourite cash cow this year Daniel Rich for $126,600 at the start of the season. By Round 10, Rich’s value has skyrocketed to $286,600 after some excellent performances, but you feel his value has just about peaked. At the same time, Eagle Tom Swift ($86,600) has played two games after a slow start to the year, and is set to play his magical 3rd game for the year this weekend (magical because player values don’t rise until players play 3 games).

Now you can trade Rich for Swift, and free up $200,000 which you can spend to pick up an absolute gun elsewhere on the park. That’s the power of the Cash Cow.

5. Finally – MAKE SURE you have your team sorted to some degree before the closing time approaches on the first round.

By all means attempt to make some last minute adjustments when the teams have been released, but do not leave selecting your entire team to the last minute. The site has been known to freeze constantly as the final moments approach and until AFL.com.au does something about this, always make an effort to be ready before 4pm on that final day. Don’t be faced with a season of misery because your initial team has been auto-picked - there is no coming back from that.

Now you’ve got your initial gun squad, let’s look at some trading rules for the season ahead…

1. No Sideways Trades!

If you’ve never heard of the term ‘Sideways Trade’ - all it means is trading one player for another of similar value.

As we mentioned in the first half your trades should be valued like digital gold. You only have 20 for 22 weeks; each move needs to be strategic. Therefore do not make sideways moves unless you are forced to due to injury. Always trade up to secure another keeper, or trade down for another cash cow to make some money. As a general guide you should hope for minimum of 80+ DT points per game from a keeper, and at least $100,000 made from a cash cow to warrant using a trade.

The main crux of this rule is not trading mid-range players for another mid-range player. The reason? You still need to use another trade to upgrade the mid-ranger to a keeper to reach your final squad. If a mid-range player suffers an injury or suspension try to upgrade with money from your cash cows.

2. All your keepers from the start SHOULD be kept till the end unless they are injured/suspended for an extended period of time.

This is why: you only get 20 trades for a 22 week season. Remember that? Good.

There will possibly be exceptions to this rule, if you select a keeper who just doesn’t come through at all and is costing you severely etc etc. But the best strategy is to plan out your team and hope you can stick to it. This is where your personal research and knowledge has to come in… ”It’s not what you do it’s how you do it!”

3. Time the upgrading of your cash-cows for their peak price.

There has been analysis done on the general best timing for upgrading your rookies and sleepers (those who you think are under-priced to start the season). Starting around week 6 is usually the best time to begin trading your rookies. But again this will definitely be on a case by case basis and if you understand rule number 5 below you should be able to make the best decision for yourself.

4. When trading in rookies as future cash cows mid-season – note that rookies are best traded in after they have played 2 games as price increases do not occur for players until they have played 3 games.

After the third game will typically be a rookie’s greatest price increase (this may hold true for a sleeper you have identified who has been under-priced to start the year). So don’t get into a guessing game - just swoop on the players who have put up 2 good performances, because they are simply money in the bank when they get out their for their 3rd game.

5. Learn the impact of the break even point on player’s price based on their season DT scores.

There are several resources that help you with this. We will post the best DT resources around on the Internet as the season draws closer – keep an eye out for that. The key here is understanding the fact that prices go up/down based on a players last three games and whether or not they are aligned with their price at that point in time (a good gauge is their prior averages). If they exceed/fail to meet this level the price will go up/down accordingly. When trading always try to bring in a player whose price will be increasing – timing for peak increase is a key to making enough money to have the squad you planned for late in the season.

6. Always make sure you leave some spare trades towards the end of the season, or more specifically for the finals, in case injuries/suspensions hit you.

Trust me, often the league winner is the person who can survive the injury bug late in the season as well as the art formerly known as the Carlton Blues; tanking! And if you end up with spare trades, you can always use these to make slight upgrades to an inform player.

7. And finally NEVER…EVER…EVER…NEVER…EVER trade before the teams are selected.

I don’t care if you are locked up in the clink, find out who you need to service to book your Friday internet time and do it!

So now you’re locked and loaded for Dream Team success, and we’re still 42 days away from the start of the season. Plenty of time to tinker with your initial squad, keep a close eye on the NAB Cup, and hit the ground running for Round 1. Follow the DHF DT Manifesto and your mates won’t stand a chance!

Did we miss anything? Throw us your best AFL Dream Team tip below! Or simply spray us for letting the cat out of the bag!