Does Anyone Want To Finish 8th? Anyone?

Come last Sunday afternoon, and one thing was pretty clear – Port Adelaide could virtually wrap up the 8th spot in the upcoming finals with a win over a Fremantle Dockers with nothing to play for except pride. The Hawks had blown their big chance against an undermanned Saints and Daniel Bradshaw sunk a dagger into the Bombers hearts after the siren to snatch 2 points from their grasp. While the Swans kept their flickering hopes alive with a flogging of the Tigers, it would be to no avail if the Power did what most expected – beat the Dockers.

Instead, the Power provided us with another great example why the knives have been out for them all year. No heart, no spine – they played like a team waiting for the season to finish, rather than a team wanting to play finals.

So what looked a mere formality is once again a race on in earnest – so let’s take a look at what needs to happen for a team to lock up that coveted (not that you would know it) 8th spot.

Port Adelaide – despite their terrible effort out west, things are still pretty simple. Win their last 3 games and they will make it. Easier said than done – they face the Blues this week at home, then travel to the Gabba to play the Lions, then finish with a what-should-be-a-gimme-but-there’s-no-such-thing-if-you’re-Port game against the Kangas at home.

If Port were only to win 2 games…

Essendon are next to hold their own destiny in their hands. If they win 3, then they would make it. That would seem unlikely considering they haven’t won in a month, and come up against St Kilda, Freo @ Subi and Hawthorn in the last 3 rounds. So assuming they can’t beat the Saints (as if you would assume anything else), this leaves the door open for…

The Swannies! Who looked totally gone and written off, but seem to have regained their mojo. Could they win their last 3 and sneak in? Unlikely. They have the Cats at ANZ this week, followed by the Pies at the G, and a home game against Brisbane to finish. Probably safe to say they can’t win all 3 – if they do, then they deserve that finals berth. Finally though, this leaves the door open for…

Hawthorn – who continue to find Get Out Of Jail Free cards flying their way, and are too hungover or arrogant to bother using them. If they win their last 3, and no one else does, then they will be steaming into September. The good news is they have their last 3 games at the G – Adelaide, Richmond, and a Rd 22 blockbuster against the Bombers. The bad news is they’ve just lost Jarryd Roughead for the year with a knee injury. Still, of all the teams left, do they appear most likely to win all 3?

So after all that – how about a simple formula?

If any of these teams win their last 3 games, they will make the 8.

Can’t make it any simpler than that. Or scary you may say – seeing every one of these teams appear frightened to make the finals.

So of course, if no one wins 3 games, yet Port win 2, then they will still make it.

Let’s go one step further – what if Port only wins 1 game? Cos let’s face it – after Sunday, who would be surprised if they went winless. Losses to Carlton and Brisbane are more than feasible.

Well, it goes in the same order – if Essendon could claim 2 wins, then they would make it. Ideally that would be beating Freo at Subiaco, and backing up to knock off the Hawks the week after. Still not an easy task, but would make for a great Round 22 clash.

If Essendon can only win 1 – the door is ajar for Sydney to win 2 and sneak in. Again, that looks a tough ask – Collingwood at the G looks to be a likely loss, and Geelong will be far from easybeats this week. Throw in Brisbane in Round 22 and you couldn’t be overconfident the Swans can win 2.

So, believe it or not – the door is ajar for the Hawks to make the finals simply by winning 2 of their last 3 games! Adelaide this week is winnable, but they could still afford to drop it if Port can only win 1 match. They would have to beat Richmond, and then knock off the Bombers in Round 22.

That Round 22 clash Hawthorn v Essendon is definitely looking very exciting, even this far out.

Finally, if no one can win 2 games (hey, it wouldn’t surprise me) – Port will only need to win one game to make the finals. If they don’t do that … well I’m not going to go through it all again, 1 – it will make me sick and 2 – I’d hope you could figure it out.

Now of course, there’s some percentage concerns amongst those quick calculations, but barring any huge wins or losses, percentage actually won’t play a big part. Port’s is bad, Essendon has that extra 2 points from their draw, and Sydney’s is better than Hawthorn’s. Yet Hawthorn’s has Port covered.

The point of all this? Well, I’ve learned 3 main things:

• The 8th spot is Port’s for the taking,
• Hawthorn is far from dead and buried, and
• The respect these teams have shown 8th position, how about we just play with 7?

Who do you think will make the 8? Let us know with a comment below!