Hawthorn – An Unlikely Run To The Finals?

With the finals fast approaching the battle for a spot at the bottom end of the Top 8 is heating up and at this stage it looks as though it may be a race in four for the final two spots in the Top 8. Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton are these four teams and over the next few days we will look at the run home for these teams and just which of these will see September action. First up on our agenda is Hawthorn who is currently sitting in 10th spot.

Remaining Games:

Round 17 – Geelong (2nd) @ MCG

Round 18 – Port Adelaide (9th) @ AAMI Stadium

Round 19 – St Kilda (1st) @ Aurora Stadium

Round 20 – Adelaide (6th) @ MCG

Round 21 – Richmond (14th) @ MCG

Round 22 – Essendon (8th) @ MCG

There is no doubt Hawthorn has the toughest run home of those competing for a spot at the bottom end of the Top 8. The only assured win looks to be against Richmond in Round 21, whilst they take on Port Adelaide (Round 18) and Essendon (Round 22) who are also competing for one of the final spots. The game against Essendon could potentially be a match for 8th spot. Geelong (Round 17) and St Kilda (Round 19) are games they will go into as underdogs but as was shown in last years Grand Final they are capable of matching Geelong and the St Kilda game is down in Tasmania at a ground that they have had a great deal of success at in the past. The game against Adelaide (Round 20) looms as a must win due to the tough nature of their remaining games and it is at the MCG, a ground they play well at.

Hawthorn is the real wildcard of the group as they certainly have the ability to beat the best teams as was shown last season. The win against Collingwood last week was some of the best footy they have played all year showing all the aggression that made them so impressive last season. Much will hinge on the likes of Luke Hodge, Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli to play their best footy and lead from the front. Hodge and Franklin were both amongst the Hawks best last week and in the final quarter the week before against North Melbourne and this has corresponded with the teams increased level of play.

Considering the Hawks have an ordinary percentage at present (92.65%) and only sit on 8 wins they would most likely need to win a minimum of four games out of that batch.

I have Hawthorn finishing 11 wins and 11 losses in 10th position. I have them losing their next three games to Geelong, Port Adelaide and St Kilda before coming home strong with three wins on the trot and missing out on the Finals by a game and percentage. If the Hawks happen to win one of their next three then they may be an outside chance but I feel they will need two of them considering their percentage.

Do you think Hawthorn will make the finals? If so, do you think they can do much damage? Leave us with your thoughts.