The Derby Game Concept

With probably the most hyped regular season game approaching most fans are probably devouring a heavy feed of “experts” discussing who will win and how? The typical flood of “Bombers need fast start”, “Pies need pressure game test” or “ will take over as king of ANZAC day” is about, but we have a different angle. When it comes to these type of games predictions are near impossible. Why? Because of “The Derby Game Concept”

What is “The Derby Game Concept”?

If you were to trace The Derby Game Concept to its origins it would track back to some of the traditional Victorian club rivalries, with the figure head most likely being Carlton verse Collingwood. It was not until the mid 90’s that the concept was established upon the AFL as the league expanded to a full blown national league.

In 1995 the first ever ANZAC clash occurred bringing in 94,825 people to the MCG (second biggest home and away crowd in history), captured the feeling of Australia’s most emotional holiday and ended in a thrilling draw. It was dubbed by Collingwood President as the single most important home and away season in the history of the AFL. Since then it has been recreated each year, creating a finals atmosphere in the middle of the season and a fierce rivalry between the clubs.

The Derby Game Concept applies to games such as these, when such an atmosphere exists that predicting the result is almost impossible. You can throw the current form of each team, their talent, and their position on the ladder all out the window. For this one contest it is about heart, guts, toughness (physically and mentally) and big gamers.

The first ANZAC day clash optimized the Derby Game Concept when a talented (went on to lose in the semi final) and undefeated Bombers team (3-0) faced an average (did not make the finals) and winless Pies (0-3). Despite the differences in the team’s ability the match went down as one of the all time greats and fittingly ended in an unexpected draw.

Since then testing of the Derby Game Concept has seen results back it up time and again, particularly within the inter-state derbies from which the name is derived.

A Few of the Best Examples of “The Derby Game Concept”:

1 – The original example is the first ANZAC day clash (see above)

2 – Possibly the biggest impact of “The Derby Game Concept” was Carlton beating Essendon in the 1999 preliminary final (see below)

3 – Fremantle beating West Coast in both Western Derbies during 2006, a year that the Eagles went on to win the premiership – this also saw the greatest dodge of “The Derby Game Concept” in the history of the AFL (see below).

4 – Port Adelaide beating Adelaide in 2006 while Adelaide (notably depleted with injuries) was perched on top of the AFL ladder. Adelaide finished one game short of the grand final while Port Adelaide failed to make the finals.

5 – Adelaide beating Port Adelaide in 2005, a year that saw Port Adelaide win their only grand final while Adelaide failed to make the finals.

6 – Carlton beating Collingwood in 2008, at the time Collingwood were 2-1 and a favourite to finish in the top 4 while Carlton were winless and looking like contender for the wooden spoon.

7 – Carlton beating Essendon in 2007, Essendon had started the season with two tough wins despite not expecting to do much that year, and were looking headed for a third straight win to start the year holding a huge advantage over wooden spoon favourites Carlton early in the contest. But they could not escape “The Derby Game Concept” as an inspired Blues outfit led by blazing hot Brendan Fevola fired back to snatch the win.

8 – Adelaide beating Port Adelaide in 2007, a year that saw Port Adelaide make the grand final while Adelaide only managed an 8th place finish

Has “The Derby Game Concept” swayed a final?

Yes – in 1999 the overachieving Carlton Blues were expected to lose to a much more talented Essendon team that would set up the much anticipated Essendon verse North Melbourne grand final. Unfortunately for the Bombers “The Derby Game Concept” caught up with them and the Blues caused possibly the biggest upset in AFL finals history winning by 1 point.

This is possibly the most significant evidence for “The Derby Game Concept”. Absolutely no one expected Carlton had a chance in the game. The 1999 grand final become the most unanticipated final in recent memory, Essendon went to become the greatest single season team of the modern era in 2000 losing just 1 game and Carlton began a journey into mediocrity.

The Greatest Dodge of “The Derby Game Concept”

The biggest dodge occurred in the 2006 finals when the West Coast Eagles avoided a match with cross-town rivals Fremantle after both teams lost in the first week and subsequently managed to stay on different paths to the grand final. West Coast went on to win the Grand Final against Sydney who the week before knocked our Fremantle.

Avoiding a clash with Fremantle in the finals played a huge part in helping the Eagles secure their third premiership as despite only losing 5 games that year, 2 were to Fremantle in the fiery Western Derbies. To make matters worse Fremantle had won their last 9 games going into the finals, so even a slight change to the records could have seen West Coast’s worst nightmare with a first round matchup between the two teams.

So while you sit down to watch today’s typical great ANZAC day clash at the G, good lucky trying to predict the outcome – sit back and marvel in a game which is always played out with incredible spirit and drama.