What I Learned From The Split Round

The dreaded split round is behind us, which means one thing - we are entering the business time of the season. Whether your aim is winning the premiership, or snagging a priority pick, it’s time to get your team going in the right direction. And a lazy couple of weeks means it’s the perfect opportunity to assess where things are at.

Geelong are beatable. Very beatable. The Bulldogs showed that a few weeks back, the Hawks showed it in the Grand Final, and the Pies showed it that ice cold Friday night at the G when they flogged the pants off them. I wouldn’t place much faith in their narrow-ish wins in the West the last couple of rounds - they did what they had to do. What it did show however is the problems they have up forward. Mooney is horribly out of form, and Hawkins is still an extremely raw prospect who you wouldn’t want to be banking on just now - just look back to the game against the Dogs. They really rely on Stevie J, Chappy, Matty Stokes and even Shannon Byrnes to make their forward line work.

If you can match the Cats through the middle, you’re always a chance to take advantage of their wasted opportunities up forward. Most teams are light years from doing that. The Hawks can, the Pies can, the Dogs can, and soon enough we’ll find out if the Saints can. If the Cats can fix up their forward line, then the flag is theirs. But I doubt they can with the cattle they have. While they will cruise into the finals, and most likely the preliminary, there’s enough problems up front to say last year’s finals loss might not have been a fluke.

Have the Saints gone too early? They play a very physical, demanding style - no doubt a result of Ross Lyon’s Sydney apprenticeship. A few have raised the point that they looked tired at times against the Blues, and the break has come at just the right time. Will they have the legs to see the season out? Or will they fall short come September once again? Time will tell - my gut says the latter, but Sydney rode their style to back to back Grand Final showings. I think the Saints might be one preseason base short this year, though.

Essendon’s next month will shape the lower end of the final 8 like no other team’s month this year. Games against Carlton, Collingwood, away to Sydney and Western Bulldogs will give us a true guide on where the young Bombers are at. The Blues and the Pies will be very fired up, the Swans will be desperate, and the Dogs are simply flying.

Port Adelaide will need to make up their mind whether they can be bothered with this season. Talking a big game in the media doesn’t make them a good team. Performances like theirs against the Dogs definitely don’t make them a good team. Winning games they ’should’ win will make them a good team. Time is running out for them.

Hawthorn’s season is also quickly slipping away. Injuries have ravaged them, so don’t write them off. But September is looking more and more like a struggle, and less like the given it should for the reigning premiers. A finals berth can be gone before you know it, so they need to make a statement first up out of the break against the Eagles at Subiaco. Drop that one, and they are well and truly behind the eight ball. But if they do fire up beware - they’re still premiership contenders … they just have to get there intact.

Prepare for the tanking talk to start up. Melbourne are virtually guaranteed a priority pick - they won’t need to tank to win less than 5 games for the season. West Coast are a different case - a somewhat promising start to the season has turned into a huge mid season hole, and the youngsters keep getting blooded. With still just the three wins, will a 1-9 run home be tempting enough for them to snag a priority pick in the last uncompromised draft for some time? With Dean Cox struggling with a groin injury, the prospect of cotton wool for him could just be enough for the Eagles to snag another early youngster in another ‘reward for mediocrity’.

Finally, the scheduling of the split round still confuses me … surely the best option would be two weeks of four games - Friday night, Saturday arvo, Saturday night, and then Sunday arvo. Seems pretty obvious to me, if you know why they don’t, please let me know with a comment. I guess it has something to do with TV rights, but christ - give us one game at a time if you’re going to spread it over two weeks - people just want their footy.

Bring on the final 10 rounds - it’s far from a 2 horse race, and I get the feeling this might be the closest and most exciting premiership race we’ve seen in quite a while…