Will The Blues Fall Into The 8?

The last team fighting out a final 8 berth is another one of the big improvers of Season 2009, Carlton. The Blues are currently sitting in 7th spot and are a game and percentage ahead of their nearest rivals.

Remaining Games:

Round 18 – North Melbourne (12th) @ Etihad Stadium

Round 19 – Geelong (2nd) @ MCG

Round 20 – Port Adelaide (9th) @ AAMI Stadium

Round 21 – Melbourne (15th) @ Etihad Stadium

Round 22 – Adelaide (6th) @ Etihad Stadium

Many people expected big things from Carlton this season given their big improvements throughout 2008. They started off the season in a blaze of glory destroying Richmond in Round 1. Since then inconsistencies have dogged their play, struggling to string wins together and four quarters of good football. The heavy reliance on Judd and Fevola has usually meant if both or at least one of them didn’t fire then it generally resulted in a loss for the Blues.

The Blues don’t have the easiest of draws on the way home having to play two teams in the Top 8 and one interstate trip. They face Geelong (Round 19) and Adelaide (Round 22) of the teams currently sitting in the Top 8. Geelong should be a very difficult proposition and a win from that game would be a huge bonus. They face the Crows in Melbourne so depending on how well they are travelling at that stage they should have the confidence to play well against them. The fixtures against North Melbourne (Round 18) and Melbourne (Round 21) should be marked down as wins for any teams looking to play finals footy in 2009. The Port Adelaide (Round 20) game will be a vital one with the Power also fighting for a finals spot. The Blues defeated the Power at AAMI Stadium last season so the road trip should provide no fears for them.

The two big keys for Carlton are Brendan Fevola and Chris Judd. Judd will generally give you maximum output week after week but it’s Fev who is their barometer, a man who can go from hero to zero and back up to hero in the space of a fortnight. They will also need consistent performances from the likes of Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy to help Judd in the middle. Eddie Betts, Matthew Kreuzer and Setanta O’Hailpin will be needed for contributions up forward so the goal kicking work load won’t be left entirely for Fevola.

Carlton’s percentage (112.53%) is by far and away the best out of the group of four teams competing for the final two spots in the Top 8. Out of their final 6 games only Geelong (Round 19) look capable of doing some serious damage to their percentage but even then it would need to be a flogging of mammoth proportions for it to drop down near the level of Essendon (101.34%).

I have Carlton finishing 12 wins and 10 losses in 7th position. North Melbourne (Round 18) and Melbourne (Round 21) should be comfortable wins for the Blues. I have Geelong (Round 19) being too strong for them and a desperate Port Adelaide (Round 20) getting over the top of them at home. The match against Adelaide (Round 22) could end up being a key one for the Blues and I think with potentially so much to play for in the final round of the season the Blues can do enough to get over the top of the Crows.

Do you think Carlton will make the finals? Would it be a failed season if the Blues miss the finals? Leave us with your thoughts.